Could Delta stop the rebound in activity? – Company press

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“Looking Glass” examines economic and real estate trends through two different lenses: the optimist “half a glass is full” and the pessimist “half a glass empty”.

Buzz: The highly contagious fallout from the coronavirus can change consumption patterns and delay the ongoing economic recovery relative to business limits during a pandemic.

Discussion: Just as the coronavirus chills were drawing to a close, the Delta variant brought coronavirus infections, hospitalizations and deaths to levels not seen since early 2021. Health risk?

Half a full glass

It shouldn’t be a big surprise that there is a problem with the economic recovery. No one expected him to return to normal completely smoothly.

California still saw 1.24 million job declines in June, accounting for 93% of state employment in February 2020, just before the virus broke out. The rest of the country is at 96%.

But progress is being made. Statewide employers grew 3% in the first half of 2021, compared to 2.2% in all other states.

Fortunately, Delta hits occur when at least half of the country is fully vaccinated against the virus. Citizens and businesses also know how to live and operate safely as the pandemic develops.

The long-term business outlook remains strong, as only the timing of the “new normal” may have been slightly delayed.

In fact, it can be argued that the delta variant can in fact be of economic benefit, without ignoring the serious health issues involved.

For example, the resurrected virus has encouraged many to get vaccinated in recent weeks, bringing California and the country closer to vaccination levels that dramatically minimize future viral risk.

And do not forget Hot housing market.

The risk of the new coronavirus only further encourages house hunters to desire more living space.

Many employers delay the return of workers to traditional offices. This will increase the demand for home office space. This is a plus for purchases and renovations.

Fear of Delta’s financial damage has also helped cut many interest rates in recent weeks. Homebuyers, who feared more expensive mortgages in a rapidly recovering economy, now have another chance to take advantage of these historically low interest rates.

Major benchmark mortgage rates fell to 2.77% this week. It fell 3.18% in April and approached a record low of 2.65% in January.

Half a glass of water

But Delta is another blow to the industry most devastated in the pandemic: the “entertainment” industry, which serves food eaters, travelers and entertainment enthusiasts.

It is not a small delay. California’s entertainment and hospitality sector accounts for 10% of all workers, but 40% of all jobs lost in the state since February 2020. This means that as of February 2020, the number of workers in the state has decreased by 480,000, making industry 77% of employment before the pandemic. .. The rest of the country accounts for 89% of the leisure and hospitality workforce as of February 2020.

So far we have seen significant improvements. Fun bosses grew 19% in the first six months of 2021, but rose 11% in all other states.

Yet Delta’s economic impact isn’t limited to restaurants, hotels, and theme parks.

Expect a heated debate over whether the fall semester will be taught remotely or back on campus. For face-to-face learning, what are the restrictions such as wearing a mask and compulsory vaccinations?

Also consider the labor shortage that is slowing down many industries. The resurrected virus will certainly scare some people back into the workforce soon. It further hinders the takeover of a company’s supply chain and can put missing products back on the shelves.

What the mirror sees

The future is cloudy because the economy does not require a lot of business expertise down the road. It is above all a bet on viruses.

This means that predictions require expertise in viral science and are the best way to assess health risks.

Unfortunately, this also requires some knowledge of politics. Without a doubt, much of the future of business is particularly tied to how state governments handle virus containment.

And psychological skills will also come in handy.

Government decrees do not only change consumption habits. How the public reacts emotionally to the delta surge is part of the equation that determines which companies have been affected by the potential to change consumer preferences.

Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist for Southern California NewsGroup. He can reach at [email protected]

Could Delta stop the rebound in activity? – Company press Source link Could Delta stop the rebound in activity? – Company press


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